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2024, the most consequential year for Americans
Next year, Americans face a pivotal crossroads: they might convict a former president of a crime only to potentially elect him back into the White House. Alternatively, they could opt for an unpopular incumbent whose vice president stands poised to break historic ground as the first female chief executive.
The nation could either maintain a strong pushback against a Supreme Court ruling that revoked guaranteed abortion rights, cementing the right to abortion across various states, or witness a scenario where accessing necessary medication for abortion becomes nearly impossible. Furthermore, state legislatures might even impose severe penalties on women seeking abortions.
Elsewhere, Ukraine stands on the brink of either rallying its limited forces with allied support to resist Putin's invasion or succumbing to international fatigue, allowing Putin to annex the country and advance his ambitions of resurrecting the Soviet empire.
In the Middle East, the conflict in Gaza could culminate in the release of hostages and a path toward peaceful coexistence between Israelis and Palestinians. Conversely, the region could witness catastrophic losses on both sides, potentially posing the most significant existential threat to Israel since its inception in 1948.
What’s coming in 2024?
As 2024 approaches, analysts foresee an unprecedented and pivotal year in modern history, filled with outcomes that might deeply divide the nation. With differing opinions on what's best for the country, the potential for public unrest looms large.
Miringoff is cautious not to forecast any assassinations akin to the tragic events involving Robert F. Kennedy and Martin Luther King in 1968. However, historians and political analysts highlight the magnitude of the current stakes in the United States and globally. They emphasize that much like that tumultuous year, issues involving international borders, long-standing social policies, and the very essence of democracy are at risk.
Future of Abortion rights
Analysts express uncertainty regarding the future of abortion rights. Some states have taken steps to safeguard this right, with more planning referendums for the upcoming year. Yet, there's a counter trend as well – illustrated by recent actions in Missouri where Republican legislators introduced a bill proposing homicide charges against women seeking abortions.
Furthermore, the Supreme Court's decision to review a case related to the accessibility of the abortion drug mifepristone raises concerns. If the court deems the drug a violation of the Comstock Act, which forbids the mailing of "obscene" materials, it could obstruct healthcare providers and pharmacies from obtaining it.
Audrey Blondin, a Connecticut-based lawyer and public health expert involved in reproductive rights, points out that even in states where abortion remains legal, the Court's ruling could prevent access.
Blondin stresses, "If the Supreme Court upholds the Comstock Act and bans medication abortion through mail, that takes precedence. Regardless of other laws in place, that decision marks the ultimate barrier."
2024 elections
Apart from the abortion issue, analysts project that the 2024 elections will inherently redefine the nation's trajectory, potentially steering it toward drastically divergent paths based on the outcomes.
Barbara Perry, a presidential scholar at the University of Virginia's Miller Center, highlights the unprecedented nature of the upcoming U.S. presidential election. The contest stands out as historically unique due to the incumbent facing another candidate who holds a de facto incumbent status.
This distinctive election landscape is compounded by former President Donald Trump confronting a combined total of 91 criminal charges across federal and state courts. Meanwhile, President Joe Biden maintains approval ratings hovering in the high 30s or low 40s. Both contenders exhibit signs of aging, and the pivotal role the Supreme Court might play in determining candidates, voter eligibility, and incumbency amplifies the year's dramatic essence.
Consider the possibility where Trump could face conviction yet secure an election victory without being able to cast a vote for himself. Subsequently attempting to pardon himself would trigger a significant court challenge, exacerbating tensions among nearly half the nation and eroding confidence in the country's highest arbiter of disputes.
Alternatively, if Trump were to lose the election, irrespective of a conviction, a substantial portion of the populace might still harbor grievances, believing (regardless of factual evidence) that the election was rigged against him.
Lastly
Analysts suggest that if the poorly favored Biden manages to secure re-election shortly before his 82nd birthday, it will prompt speculation regarding his ability to complete his second term. Another potential upheaval—yielding the momentous rise of America's inaugural female president—also looms as a possibility.
